Blood Shed Boosts Oil Price

The biggest potential losers in the still-roiling revolutions of the Middle East and North Africa are the people themselves. Many are democrats at high risk of being overwhelmed over time by new dictators and organised religious extremists. But the uncontested winners are already quite clear: those who own, sell, and bet on oil. In the last month alone, oil prices have leaped almost 10 per cent, even with only tiny dips in supply.

While these revolutions have produced daily thunderclaps worldwide about a new democratic future for the Middle East, power structures remain largely intact. Almost every country in the region looks as if it’s marking time, waiting. So far, those who took to the streets succeeded only in ousting their unwanted masters — Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia — and not in really changing the power status quo ante. In Yemen, the established leadership does look shaky. In Libya, where the media proclaimed the rebels as victors last week, it seems like a standoff with Col. Muammar Gaddafi.

In Tunisia, where it all began, the revolutionaries are awaiting elections. The once banned Islamist party Al Nahda has just been legalised. In Egypt, the protesters still find themselves in the strong grip of the military. Elections are set for September, and the military, as well as the Muslim Brotherhood, can be expected to top the parliamentary polls. In Bahrain, the huge Shia majority took to the squares  — only a causeway away from the Saudi Arabian oil jackpot. To date, the revolutions have generated far more drama and hope than real change.

The fighting in Libya has understandably monopolised attention, though its international importance is modest. Its normal output of oil sits at only one per cent of daily global consumption. But watch out: legions of neoconservatives are demanding military action against Gaddafi, though his Arab neighbours say, “stay out.”

Israel is the biggest strategic loser. The Jewish state has relied on Arab regimes to subdue the anti-Zionist sentiments of their peoples. And Israel can’t do anything to fix its plight. Times are not at all conducive for new talks with Palestinians. The United States is also a loser, but it need not be a big one. Washington’s power depends on whether the revolutions peter out or launch new anti-American rulers. Whatever happens, Washington will confront greater anti-Americanism. Counterterrorism operations and anti-Iran diplomacy will suffer.

Turkey will be a model for Arab nations lucky enough to democratise. Its foreign policy balances between the United States and the states of Islam and is also now somewhat anti-Israel. Internally, Turkey balances between an Islamic and a secular state. The country has internal stability and a promising economy.

Conventional wisdom holds that Iran has won the lottery. But don’t bet on it. Iranians are Shias and Persians; the revolutionaries are mostly Sunnis and Arabs. These groups don’t particularly care for one another. Most important, Arab revolutionaries must surely despise Iranian leaders who beat and slaughtered Iran’s freedom fighters a mere two years ago. It’s quite possible that the revolutionary fervour will tire amid economic shortages and other burdens, and fade. Or the revolutions could erupt once again, forcing profound recalculations of US policy. But two things are certain: the oil barons and traders will get richer, and most people worldwide will scramble against higher oil and food prices and declining economies.

Bahraini People Demand Deportation Of Sunni Muslims

Thousands of Shiite protesters in Bahrain demanded Wednesday that naturalized Sunnis be stripped of their citizenship and sent out of the Gulf country.

The latest demand comes after three weeks of marches for political change in the strategically important island kingdom. Bahrain is the host of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, the main American military counterweight to Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf.

Shiites of Bahrain have long demanded rights and opportunities equal to those of the kingdom’s Sunni citizens as well as Sunnis from Arab countries and Pakistan who have been naturalized in an effort to boost the minority’s numbers.

Thousands marched on the immigration office in the Bahraini capital of Manama, carrying slogans that said in Arabic “The naturalized must get out.”

Bahrain has been ruled by a Sunni monarchy for 200 years. Tensions remain high after a clash last week between Shiites and Sunnis injured at least a dozen people.

The ruling Al Khalifa family is strongly backed by Saudi Arabia and other Sunni regimes across the Gulf, which all share major concerns about the growing military and political ambitions of Shiite powerhouse Iran.

Bahrain and Iraq are the only two Arab countries where the Shiites form a majority. Many Sunnis perceive Shiites as Iran’s Arab allies, even though — unlike the Shiites of Iraq — Bahrain’s majority and Tehran have no history of strong political bonds.

More than being accused of being Tehran’s agents, Bahrain’s Shiites have been angered by the bestowing citizenship to outside Sunnis. They claim the policy is a clear attempt to offset the lopsided demographics with Shiites accounting for 70 percent of the country’s 525,000 citizens.

Many also claim that the immigration policy reflects a cynical view by Bahrain’s Sunni rulers that it’s possible to buy loyalty and use it to strengthen their grip over the country.